Posted by
Roger Fossum on Tuesday, March 11, 2008 3:03:33 PM
Who should John McCain pick as a running mate? As I see it, he has five candidates that sit at the head of the line.
One consideration McCain must think about is that the VP pick has to excite the base. I believe John McCain is basically a decent man and a strong conservative. But it's obvious that he doesn't excite the base. He's got to pick a running mate that can speak to the Christian right and get them excited about casting a vote for the McCain ticket. But who are the possibilities?
Mike Huckabee- former Baptist minister turned politician, Huckabee is an outstanding debater, can massage the press like few other candidates can, speaks the language of the common man and can actually say to the Christian right, "I'm one of you.". As a former governor, he knows how to balance a budget and did so in a heavily Democratic state. He's the only Arkansas Republican to actually stand up to the Clinton machine there and win. He's a southern politician which might help McCain hold the south for the GOP. Downside- has angered the big buck businessmen associated with the Club for Growth and has at times left folks wondering about his grasp of foreign policy. He also comes from a small state likely to go to the Democrats if Hillary is on the ticket.
Congressman Mike Pence- an evangelical Christian, Pence has refused to play the "Washington game" and go along with the culture of "big government conservativism" and "me too Republicanism". He has steadfastly opposed earmarks and set himself apart as an outsider inside the Congress. McCain has to run against the Congress and by choosing Pence, he's got a running mate that can credibly speak against the big spending Congress. Pence is a former radio talk show host and knows how to think on his feet. Downside- he is in Congress but I'm not sure how much that would weigh against him.
Senator Tom Coburn- a close ally of James Dobson, Coburn has made a name for himself as an outsider in Washington. He's come out strong against earmarks which would give him credibility running against Washington. Downside- he's been injudicious in some of the public comments he's made against the gay community but then again, they weren't going to vote GOP anyhow.
MN Governor Tim Pawlenty- an interesting pick, Pawlenty has many things going for him. He's McCain's friend. He's a Washington outsider. He's proven ability in balancing a budget in a state that has a Democratic majority in the state legislature. He's intelligent, witty and soft spoken. He's a younger man and an evangelical Christian. (His pastor, incidentally, is the president of the National Association of Evangelicals, so Pawlenty has connections with the Christian right.) Downside: as a Minnesotan, he has the typical "Minnesota Nice" style of communicating- very gentle. I don't know if he'd make much of an attack dog.
A second consideration McCain has to make is the judgment if Obama will become the candidate. Obama messes up the calculations as to which states McCain should vie for. Obama is likely to make big inroads down south which means McCain would be forced to move north for electoral votes. I think this is an argument for a northern Republican. Who do they include?
Tom Ridge- very popular former Pennsylvania governor. Downside: pro-choice and no overt ties to the religious right. Also a former Bush administration cabinet member. If you're distancing yourself from Bush, it might not be wise to run with one of his top aides.
Tim Pawlenty- if you cobbled Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and a few of the midwestern states together, you have the equivalence of Ohio.
WI Governor Tommy Thompson- again, the same argument- if he helps carry the midwest, he might be worth it but he's also a former Bush cabinet member.
A third consideration for McCain- the Reagan coalition involved winning the south. Which candidates might help with the south?
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee- probably the clear front runner as a southern candidate, Huckabee won a half dozen or so of the southern state GOP primaries.
North Carolina Governor Mark Sanford is frequently mentioned as a possibility but I can't see it. He's in a state Obama will win if nominated and a state that McCain will win by default if Hillary is nominated. What's the advantage?
Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour- a top notch GOP strategist, the man will know how to campaign. He's a "regular guy" and can communicate well with the common man. Downside- he's a former lobbyist. When you want to campaign against the influence of lobbyists in Washington, don't run with one on the ticket with you.
The fourth consideration for McCain- he has stated publicly he wants someone who knows something about economics. This has often been construed as an argument for a governor.
The governors mentioned already include Huckabee, Pawlenty, Ridge and Thompson. A fifth governor who would make a fascinating choice is Indiana's Mitch Daniels. Mitch Daniels served as Reagan's political director. It means he knows how to campaign and he's smart. He was also George W Bush's Director of the Office of Management and Budget. This means he's going to know how to balance the federal budget and where cuts can be made. He doesn't appear to have strong ties to the Christian right but he is one of the co-founders of a private Christian school in the Indianapolis area which has to be seen as a selling point for Daniels. Downside: it's going to be hard to run away from his ties to George W Bush.
Also Pence and Coburn should be mentioned here as budget cutting hawks as well.
Fred Barnes likes Romney but Romney makes my skin crawl. I believe in redemption and that people can have a change of heart. But overnight, we're to believe Romney has gone from being a very liberal governor of Massachusetts to a conservative leader? Give me a break. He also has the downside that McCain doesn't like him. It's a big deal to McCain.
Summary- who are the best possibilities? Not necessarily in order I see the following five as McCain's best possibilities.
1. Huckabee
2. Pawlenty
3. Coburn
4. Pence
5. Daniels
Tell me what you think. I would like to see one of the five chosen.